Should You Stay With Kindle Direct Publishing Select?

Is there a more prominent question to be asked and resolved right now for indie authors?  There certainly isn’t a more pressing time, as many of us are coming up on our first renewal window.  And, as that window approaches, I’m seeing more and more authors take a stance on this issue.  Question is, what areyou going to do?

In case you’re new to the game, or you’ve lived under a rock for the last three months, Kindle Direct Publishing is the means by which you can publish your ebook on Amazon.  About three months ago, KDP announced the select program, whereby an author could take advantage of a huge promotional tool in exchange for your ebook being listed exclusively on Amazon.  The huge promotional tool is the ability to list your book for free for five (5) days during your three month KDPS agreement with Amazon.  Going free, in and of itself, is just the first of a one-two punch.  The second punch is that your free downloads “transfer” over to your paid ranking when you come off of free.  Thus, you do not get any royalty credit for the free downloads (obviously), but you do get credit in terms of where you rank when your free period is over.  To be clear, this can be HUGE (which is why I put it in caps, okay?)

PROVEN RESULTS

Let’s start with this–I have experienced and witnessed some amazing results in the KDPS program.  First, as to my own book Enemy in Blue, I have gone from being in the 20,000-30,000 ranking range to the 1,000-2,500 range.  That’s going from maybe a couple books sold a day to around 50.  Second, I was part of an Indie Book Collective event where one of the authors (Nina Bruhns, Catch Me If You Can) experienced an almost unimaginable jump.  Her book reached the top 10 in all free books, came out onto free and reached the top 30 in all of paid, and her backlog of books is now completely kicking ass.  She is selling tons of books.  Would that have happened without KDPS?  Maybe, but it certainly didn’t happen before KDPS.

If the results were a one-off, I’d let you know that and probably counsel against KDPS.  However, the results are not anomalies, which leads me to my conclusion that KDPS is the most significant marketing tool that we indie authors have at the moment.

CHANGING LANDSCAPE?

I ended the last second with the caveat “at the moment” because things can change on a moment’s notice with Amazon.  From my own personal experience, I seemed to get a bigger “transfer” based upon the number of downloads in my first free giveaway than my second.  There are rumblings that Amazon is not giving as much credit for free downloads in KDPS now as they were at the beginning of the program.  Essentially, they are making it more difficult to climb the rankings based solely upon your downloads. This could make the value of the primary benefit of KDPS less attractive.

Adding to the changing landscape is saturation in our target markets.  This is purely speculation, but I think there’s an upper limit to what people are willing to throw onto their devices.  If they have 50 books that they have downloaded for free, are they really going to add the 51st, 52nd, etc.?  Even if they do, will they ever read them?  This also begs the question, are people going to become accustomed to getting books for free?  Will they still pay $2.99 for a book when they know that it may go free in the next several months?  Is that the world we (as indie authors) want to create…and do we have any say in it to begin with?

I think a very interesting indicator of where readers are headed is the report generated by Kindle Nation Daily with respect to the successes of their sponsors.  Here’s the link to the results: https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AlfzLsx6vYzodHZaUWJ6QS0tdC1Rb1pFay1sNW5pSHc&gid=18  If you take the time to analyze the results over the last few months compared to the last year, for instance, you’ll see two things.  First, many more authors listing their books for free and paying for advertising space to do so.  Second, the numerical jump in ranking for books that are free versus those that are paid is significantly different.  To me, this means that readers are becoming accustomed to free rather than paid.  (Now, this may largely be a result of the shift in who advertises on Kindle Nation Daily, i.e. more free books, but it is the only empirical data we have as to results from advertising).

STILL THE BEST GAME IN TOWN

Things can change on a dime.  Just look at what KDPS did to our world.  As things currently stand, it is a must to use the KDPS system as an indie author.  Nowhere else are you going to get 5,000, 10,000, or 20,000 downloads of your book.  Even if 1-2% of those people actually read the book, you’re still better off.  Further, no other distribution system (i.e. Apple, B&N, Smashwords) provides usany marketing tools of anysignificance.  Will all your ebook eggs be in one basket for 3 month periods?  Yes.  But, is there really only one basket that’s going to lift you to success as an indie author?  Eh, kinda.  At least right now.  I don’t see many authors gloating about how they sold 1,000,000 books on Smashwords or B&N.

In sum, I simply don’t think there’s a better way to expose your book right now, and I don’t think there’s a better way to climb the bestselling ranks.  Could that change in a year?  Sure.  Could that change in a month?  Absolutely.  Until it does, I’ve got to stick with KDPS.

How to Get Your Book Downloaded 5,141 Times in Two Days

Has anything shaken up the book industry as much as KDP Select in recent memory?  Low sales in December are being blamed almost entirely on the KDP Select program.  Despite admonitions regarding joining the Select program, I decided to roll the dice and see what good, and bad, would come from the program.  Here are the early results.

BRIEFLY, WHAT IS KDP SELECT?

I don’t want to spend much time on this, because all the information is available on your KDP page.  Basically, the Select program is this: (1) you give up all rights to distribute your EBOOK anywhere but on Amazon (does not apply to paperbacks, doesn’t apply to any ebooks which are not enrolled); (2) consumers with Amazon Prime and a Kindle device can borrow your book for free (has to be a Kindle device, not just a Kindle app); and (3) based upon the number of times your book is borrowed, you get a slice of the monthly pie, which is currently $500,000/month.

TIMING IS *ALMOST* EVERYTHING

Part of the Select program is the ability to choose dates on which you want to promote your book for free.  (As an aside, you can just change your price to $0.00 in KDP.  I believe the only difference is that you won’t know, with exactitude, when the price change will take place).  I chose December 27-28 to have two free days.  Did I base my selection on extensive market research?  Wish I could say yes.  Rather, I picked those days because it seemed logical to me that people would have new reading devices from Christmas, and would want to download new books.  Call it prescience, call it dumb luck, but people downloaded Enemy in Blue like it was a new Grisham book.

Enemy in Blue had around 800 downloads as of 8am MST on the 27th.  Literally, every time I clicked the refresh page on my KDP monthly report, the number seemed to go up by around 100 downloads.  I can tell you it was a feeling like no other, and I envy the big time writers that are used to this type of success on a yearly basis!

I think this issue of timing begs the question of whether now is a good time to run your free days?  If push came to shove, I’d say hold off for a bit until people have had a chance to run through the books they just undoubtedly downloaded.  How long is that?  No idea, but my gut says that people’s readers are loaded with books right now.

IF TIMING ISN’T EVERYTHING, WHAT ELSE IS THERE?

I honestly believe timing was not everything.  If my book had a big goose egg for reviews, I don’t think people would have downloaded it, free or not.  If I hadn’t started #AmazonLikes several months ago, Enemy in Blue wouldn’t be liked and tagged as much as it is.  If I hadn’t done the countless other things (blog tours, interviews, building a Twitter following, etc.) written about here on my blog in other posts, no 5,141 downloads.  Finally, one more thing because this post is just as much about me assuring myself that I had some part in this near-miracle, but if I hadn’t taken optimization classes for every detail of my Amazon page, then “no go,” my friends.

In short, way back when I started writing this blog, I analogized the writing process to building a house.  I started the analogy with a reference to putting in your foundation.  All those efforts listed in the last paragraph?  The foundation.  Without it, simply no way people would have downloaded Enemy in Blue so much.  Remember, even a free book costs time.

RESULTS SINCE THE TWO FREE DAYS

Obviously, a huge question is whether the success in those two free days has spilled over to the following paid days.  Short answer, it has.  Enemy in Blue was ranked #552 in paid books at its peak, which amounted to over 200 books/day.  Sales have slowly decreased each day thereafter, with some of that necessarily flowing from the New Year’s break.  (I don’t think many people wake up on January 1 with whiskey on their breath and say, “Durnit, I wanna read a book!”).

It remains to be seen what impact all the downloads have on Enemy in Blue.  Hopefully, it will result in reviews, and word of mouth.  Seems like a given, with that number of downloads.  Also, I’m currently ranked #31 in Action and Adventure as a result of the whole effort, and peaked at #19.  I believe that a big list such as A&A can drive further sales, as opposed to some of the strange, extremely niche lists that I see next to other books.  I’m keeping track of sales on a daily basis, and will update the blog with that information in the future.

IS IT WORTH IT?

I’m frequently getting asked how Enemy in Blue shot up the charts, and whether Select has been worth it.  Obviously, for me, it was.  However, I would stick to my caution that without the proper elements (good cover, great reviews and not just 5 of them, likes and tags, best product description possible), I don’t think you will see tremendous success with the Select program.  Plus, you will be limited selling on Amazon for 90 days.  My suggestion would be to build that foundation for your book, and once you get there, pick a couple weekdays to offer your book for free.  I have seen my best sales figures on Thursdays/Fridays.

One more tip from my time spent analyzing all this–having multiple books is another catalyst to success in using free days.  Point in case?  J.A. Konrath.  The guy is a beast of an author.  He has nearly written more damn books than I have on my bookshelves!  A couple of his books were free at the same time as Enemy in Blue.  I watched all of his books, free and paid, rise to the tops of their various bestselling lists.  And, they’ve stayed there.  So, if you can use the free days to help promote multiple books in a series, for example, then Select absolutely seems worth it.

LINGERING QUESTIONS

I would be remiss if I sat here, writing this post, and failed to disclose that I’m hesitant to even publish it.  I mean, I’ve just experienced success, but who’s to say that wasn’t a flash in the pan?  Some cosmic alignment.  I’m certainly not sitting here with any notion that “I’ve made it.”  In fact, if anything, I’ve got more of a knot in my stomach now, as I watch my ranking oscillate.

That disclosure aside, here are some of my unanswered questions:

(1)  How do you get the initial “burst” of downloads when your book goes free?  This is the burst that puts you on a bestseller’s list, and being on those lists undoubtedly builds your momentum.

(2)  How often should the free “tool” be used?  As a part of the Select program, you can schedule five (5) free days in a 90-day period.  Should that be your limit of free days in a quarter?  At what point is more not better?  I’ll be testing this in the next few months to further hone the results.

(3)  The critical question–what is my royalty going to be calculated at for the borrowed books?  If I’m making 40%, instead of 70%, is it worth it?  Will it just result in a way for Amazon to pay lower royalty rates, while at the same time locking up its monopoly?  Call me neurotic, but businesses exist to maximize their own profits.

WRAPPIN’ IT UP

If you came here looking for an easy answer and now hate me, don’t forget your New Year’s resolution was to go easy on other people, k?  Bottom line though, and we always know it, is that hard work underlies nearly all success.  Take some time to read the other blog posts on here, put some sweat and blood into your foundation, and then give Select a shot.  If you have any questions/additions/comments, please add them to this blog post, and I’ll try to respond as quickly as possible!

Here’s to our mutual success in 2012!